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Is Hard Brexit dead?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by Hayvek, Jun 10, 2017.

  1. smat

    smat Registered User

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    Not sure how much, if at all, Emily Thornberry speaks for the Labour leadership, but she has strongly suggested Labour will vote against any deal the Tories bring before parliament. I'm sure Labour will split to some extent but so will the Tories, and if the government is defeated then May will not really have a choice but to go, and the situation would (surely) call for a general election.
     
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  2. BoroWill

    BoroWill Registered User

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    No it doesn't. It references the immediate impact of leaving, see below:

    "Today the Treasury is publishing its detailed and rigorous analysis of the immediate impact of leaving the EU on growth, jobs, prices, wages, house prices and our nation’s finances."

    The definite immediate impact of leaving the EU can only be known when we've left the EU.

    As for the rest of your post. Unemployment has only not risen because of the fudge that is zero hours contracts (I understand they are good and desirable for some but for most they aren't) and the growing "gig economy". We both know that the only reason he projected falling house prices as a negative is because his parties voters are the ones who'll take the hit (as they should), I completely agree that a housing crash would be very good at this moment in time.
     
  3. FranniesTache

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    The house price crash is very real, London (which is normally the canary in the coal mine) is suffering from house price drops for the first time in almost a decade.
     
  4. BoroWill

    BoroWill Registered User

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    Fantastic (as a person currently looking to buy his first property).
     
  5. FranniesTache

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    Possibly, i'm mixed on this one, in theory a house price drop is good for people looking to buy (in particular first time buyers) but coupled with rising inflation, lowering (in real terms) wages, job insecurity and the rest it means far more people are at risk of losing their homes and savings and will ultimately hurt the poorest worst as they're the ones who won't be able to hold onto their property until the market recovers.
     
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  6. BoroWill

    BoroWill Registered User

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    Yeh, I was meaning from a purely selfish point of view. For society, it probably wouldn't be great but it would provide a change like people voted for in the referendum...
     
  7. johnnyT

    johnnyT Registered User

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    Feb 2013 £1.14 To 1 Euro

    Todays rate £1.12

    If we get the hard brexit we all voted for, we will smash the EU to pieces

    Rule Britania > Project Fear
     
  8. TAFKAP

    TAFKAP Where's Adim?
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    There are some very clear indicators later in the speech which made it clear he was referencing the immediate impact of a leave vote:

    "Well, first households and businesses will know that Britain is going to be poorer in the future, so they’ll start cutting back on spending now, and avoiding big investments. And that has an effect on the economy now."

    ---

    "We’d have just two years to work out how to leave the EU; two years to find a new working relationship with our neighbours; two years to do trade deals with over 50 other non EU countries; two years to introduce a load of new regulations here at home.

    In other words, two years at the very least of complete uncertainty – and probably more.

    And what will British businesses be doing during those two years?"

    ---

    "The Treasury asked one of the country’s leading economists and a former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Professor Sir Charles Bean to review the work, and he concludes that it “provides reasonable estimates of the likely size of the short term impact of a vote to leave on the UK economy”."

    --

    "
    The central conclusions of today’s Treasury analysis are clear – a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession.

    Within two years the size of our economy – our GDP – would be at least 3% smaller as a result of leaving the EU – and it could be as much as 6% smaller."

    ---

    "Within a year of the Referendum, inflation would be over 2% higher."

    ---

    "By 2018 house prices would be hit by at least 10% and as much as 18%.

    So that’s what it means to vote to leave the EU."
     
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  9. PorkchopExpress

    PorkchopExpress He's super strong, and super naked!

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    November 2015 i.e. just before the whole elction campaign started:
    £1 got you 1.42 €
    £1 got you 1.5 $
     
  10. johnnyT

    johnnyT Registered User

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    That's just uncertainty created by Osborne and co as discussed above.

    We are British we conquer all.
     
  11. PorkchopExpress

    PorkchopExpress He's super strong, and super naked!

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    No. It is caused by people no longer wanting to invest in Britain now it is out of one of the biggest trade markets in the world. When it looked like the vote was going in favour of a no vote the pound made a recovery, only for it to die as soon as the yes vote had won.
     
  12. FranniesTache

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    Wait until we lose the financial passport...
     
  13. SALTIRE

    SALTIRE Slàinte mhath!

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    What a ****ing mess, all due to some xenophobic tories and people with hate and insecurity about themselves and the rest of us will have to suffer through all this.
     
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  14. johnnyT

    johnnyT Registered User

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    I don't want foreign investment........its ruined the country in sooo many ways.
     
  15. johnnyT

    johnnyT Registered User

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    Yes cant wait, proper jobs might HAVE to be created.
     
  16. FranniesTache

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    yeah because that's how it works :laugh:
     
  17. johnnyT

    johnnyT Registered User

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    And the financial industry works just fine too...........pmsl
     
  18. FranniesTache

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    What the f*ck you on about you oddball :laugh:
     
  19. PorkchopExpress

    PorkchopExpress He's super strong, and super naked!

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    Give examples.
     
  20. johnnyT

    johnnyT Registered User

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    House prices in London, locals moved out for foreigners.
     

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