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Magic Numbers - League 2

Discussion in 'EFL League Two' started by PorkchopExpress, Feb 7, 2019.

  1. PorkchopExpress

    PorkchopExpress He's super strong, and super naked!

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    Now we're coming to the business end of the season, how many points are people expecting for promotion, playoffs and relegation?

    I reckon 45 points should be enough for avoiding the drop, looking at the bottom 2.

    If Carlisle continue their current form it could be about 89 points for auto promotion, assuming the teams in front can stay ahead, which is up from last year.

    Playoffs, again would depend if the top teams can pick up form, but I'm guessing higher than last year again at about 78 points.
     
  2. ForegoneConclusion

    ForegoneConclusion Registered User

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    The quality of the top 7 this year looks really good, maybe requiring 75-6 for a spot potentially?

    Feels like low to mid 40s could be enough for survival this year.
     
    #2 ForegoneConclusion, Feb 7, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
  3. RedDevil19

    RedDevil19 Registered User

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    Not sure about this, the bottom 5/6 teams (bar Notts) all seem to pick up the odd win out of nowhere. I think 23rd will go down with 47-50 points with Notts on 40ish
     
  4. ForegoneConclusion

    ForegoneConclusion Registered User

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    I think it rests on whether Sol can keep Maccs resurgence up, although they performed well at the weekend v Mansfield they still came out with 3-1 loss.

    Perhaps you're right though, it is a tough one to call given there is a lot of inconsistency down there.
     
  5. PorkchopExpress

    PorkchopExpress He's super strong, and super naked!

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    Going down with 50 points could be possible, especially considering that teams are on around 30 points atm. So it would only need a slight improvement on this season's form.
     
  6. GTFCfish

    GTFCfish Registered User

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    Can’t see low 40’s being enough to stay up as towards the end of the season the bottom teams all suddenly start winning.
    When we were on our terrible winless run last season (20 league games) I thought it was gonna be anywhere from 38 - 42 points but then Barnet went on that great run and it ended up being 46 points to stay up.
     
  7. 88BenM

    88BenM Registered User

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    I think this season will be the closest in a while for a top 7 finish. Where do you draw the line as to who is involved an who isn't? Grimsby fans seem to think they've got an outside chance of top 7 finish, but then they're equal on points with Swindon and Newport. Crewe are just ahead of those teams by 1 point, but are still 9 outside the play offs. Do you include Oldham in the mix as well? Realistically, I think it is going to be between the current top 9 as to who finishes in the top 7. I don't think that Stevenage have got a strong enough squad to compete in the top 7, so 1 from Lincoln, Mansfield, Bury, FGR, Carlisle, MK, Exeter & Colchester will miss out. If you look at the table at this stage last season, Accrington were 11 points adrift of Luton in 5th place! So I wouldn't rule out somebody like FGR going on a mental run and finishing the season as Champions.

    Lincoln have had a steady wobble in recent weeks, it's not been full blown and they've managed to pick up vital points at home to Grimsby and away at Bury. The Notts County draw can almost be forgiven with the renewed sense of optimism amongst the County supporters with the additional signings they have made.
    As for us, we've proven over the first 30 or so games that we are a nightmare to break down and beat. That gives me optimism for us maintaining our current form throughout the rest of the season. We've got a few difficult fixtures coming up, but we'll be getting them out of the way soon and have an easier on the eye run in. I would be amazed if we didn't get over the line in the top 3 this season.
     
  8. 88BenM

    88BenM Registered User

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    I'm off work this week, so I've got a bit of time on my hands.

    I've created a table based on the form of the last 8 games. This is the end result if the same form maintains over the remainder of the season.

    1. Carlisle 93
    2. Mansfield 88
    3. Lincoln 88
    _______________
    4. Bury 82
    5. FGR 81
    6. Exeter 80
    7. Stevenage 75
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    8. Crewe 73
    9. Colchester 64
    10. MK 64
    11. Grimsby 63
    12. Cheltenham 61
    13. Swindon 60
    14. Oldham 60
    15. Tranmere 58
    16. Crawley 58
    17. Cambridge 56
    18. Northampton 54
    19. Newport 51
    20. Macclesfield 46
    21. Port Vale 45
    22. Yeovil 44
    _____________________
    23. Morecambe 43
    24. Notts County 28
     
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  9. 88BenM

    88BenM Registered User

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    I also do realise the the likelihood of the same form maintaining is extremely slim, but interesting nonetheless.
     
  10. Semi-skimmed Silk

    Semi-skimmed Silk Registered User

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    Phwoar, look at Cheltenham rocket up the league there (and Newport fall away).

    I would, of course, take those final standings!
     
  11. GTFCfish

    GTFCfish Registered User

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    Lol we really don’t mate. Way too inconsistent this season, next season on the other hand........ ;)
     
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  12. Laker

    Laker Registered User

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    I’m a reasonably optimistic Cambridge fan but I can’t see us getting to 56 points. I think we’ll get 50 and that’ll be enough, with about 45 points being the cut off.
     
  13. Redfox

    Redfox Registered User

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    Wow that's so beautiful.

    To see us top of something is very rare indeed. lol
     

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