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Relegation Thread

Discussion in 'Championship' started by Addick By Nature, Dec 11, 2019.

  1. Addick By Nature

    Addick By Nature Registered User

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    After last night, I’m now officially worried.

    So I got thinking earlier today, what do we reckon is the points total to aim for to stay in this division for another year?

    Was talking with my manager at work and we reckon somewhere around 46 this season should see you safe. Which would mean we are exactly half way there whilst it would most likely mean winning another 8-10 games for Barnsley and Wigan. Obviously not as straight forward as that.

    So the last 10 years:

    09/10 49 points
    10/11 48 points
    11/12 48 Points
    12/13 55 points
    13/14 44 points
    14/15 46 points
    15/16 49 points
    16/17 51 points
    17/18 43 Points
    18/19 44 points

    An average of just under 48.

    Surely 48 is enough to survive this season?
     
  2. RM

    RM Registered User

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    Yeah 48 will be fine. Seems a low scoring season for everyone bar the top 2.

    I think us and you will both be fine but it’s easy to get dragged into it. Surprised by you considering the start you had. We are sitting just where I expected us to be, unfortunately.
     
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  3. SamB_SCFC

    SamB_SCFC FF Old Skool

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    Charlton isn't a massive surprise. Despite being a decent sized club they're terribly run with shit owners and I think they might have the smallest budget in the division. They seemed to start the season with a big promotion bounce but I think they were always candidates for being the one who drops into trouble. From a selfish point of view we could do with a freefaller, even though Charlton aren't one of the clubs I'd choose to go down. Got fond memories of away days at The Valley when I was younger.

    Stoke v Reading on Saturday is a very big game. It says a lot that our recent victories have been against Wigan, Barnsley and Luton who are the 3 other teams who are statistically as crap as us. If we're going to get out of this mess we're going to need to win home games like this against beatable lower mid table teams who we could potentially drag into the mire. We just have to get something together and get some momentum going. Especially at home where we've been awful this season. We need to get the fans back onside and behind the team because the fans and players have very much worked against each other recently. The attendance last night was dire and the players thoroughly deserved the swathes of empty red seats that greeted them at kick off.
     
    #3 SamB_SCFC, Dec 11, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2019
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  4. HappilyLost

    HappilyLost Registered User

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    Stoke will pull clear, they are in a false position to an extent even though they have looked terrible in some games.

    Their XG conceded and XG created has them at mid-table position. The early point haul by Charlton will go a long way to help them.

    Beginning of season I thought it would be Wigan, Barnsely and Millwall.

    I can't see past Barnsley, Wigan and Luton at this point.

    Luton signed a load of poor Championship journeymen and have pulled out some good results and performances but their poor recruitment will see them drop. Wigan are just continuing on from last season, while Barnsley, no team who wins 2 games in 21 matches has business playing in this division.

    46/48 points will be fine for this season, a lot of clubs trying to out do each other in how shit they can play. Wigan have only picked up 2 points from 8 matches and still find themselves 4 points away from safety. A lot of dross at the bottom of the league who can't buy a win means the points total needed to be safe could be as low as 44 this season.
     
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  5. Addick By Nature

    Addick By Nature Registered User

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    We’re probably still doing better than expected, at the start of the season I was just hoping we wouldn’t be cut adrift by January, only really seems surprising because of the fall we’ve had to get here.

    I think 45/46 should be enough this year which makes me feel a bit better. We need to pick up a few more points before the New Year starts though.

    On paper, we’ve got a very favourable February, hopefully we should be back to almost full strength by then with some January additions. Win a few in that month and we should be ok. :hopefully
     
  6. Jockney

    Jockney Bomber Jackett

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    If it makes Charlton fans feel any better, in 30 years only two sides who have been promoted via the L1 play-offs have come straight back down. Yeovil a few years back and Huddersfield (I think) in the 90s. Pretty remarkable stat, considering there have been quite a few sides who have gone up automatically and come straight back down. I think the Wembley high really has an enormous effect on the play-off winner's mentality going into the next season.
     
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  7. Addick By Nature

    Addick By Nature Registered User

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    Appreciate the sentiment Jockney but makes me feel worse if anything, would be a very Charlton thing to do to defy a stat like that.
     
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  8. lufctommo

    lufctommo Registered User

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    I can see it being Barnsley, Wigan and Luton for the drop. Charlton could be down there but I don’t think they’re any worse than the others and the six point advantage they already have is a lot down the bottom end of the table.

    Stoke, Boro, Huddersfield etc are all playing terribly but should have more quality than the others I mentioned.
     
  9. Addick By Nature

    Addick By Nature Registered User

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    At full strength we are a lot better than Wigan, Luton and Barnsley in my opinion and even a few of the teams above us.

    Just need to get to full strength again!
     
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  10. JoshBCFC

    JoshBCFC Registered User

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    When Lyle Taylor comes back you'll be fine imo. Reckon you'd be top 6 if you didn't have the injuries
     
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  11. Addick By Nature

    Addick By Nature Registered User

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    Don’t think top 6 was ever realistic, we were playing at our maximum early on, was always going to be difficult to keep that going. Top half was/is achievable though.

    The main reasons I’m worried are the injuries don’t seem to be going away and if/when we do get back to full strength, we’re already in a rot now and could be well in the mire.
     
  12. JoshBCFC

    JoshBCFC Registered User

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    Yeah, suppose. Even if you can't get out of this rut for a long while there's definitely still 3 worse teams in this league.
     
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  13. JamesTyke

    JamesTyke Registered User

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    We had to win tonight. Reading were practically begging us to as well, gifted us a goal and left huge gaps in the last 10 minutes but we wasted the chance every time, and to top it off gifted them a goal of their own. If we can't win games like that then we're stuffed - although it's clear we were prior to kick off, 2 wins in 20 before tonight. ****ing **** me.
     
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  14. RM

    RM Registered User

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    After that performance I might aswell get comfortable in here for a while.

    And here’s some entertainment, men:



    Truly dreadful.
     
  15. PreedyPride

    PreedyPride Mediocrates

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    We’ve been conceding them all season so was nice to be on the other side of it for a change.

    That was one of the worst games of football I’ve ever witnessed, we are truly atrocious and fully deserve to be where we are. Can’t see any way back from here.
     
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  16. RM

    RM Registered User

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    And yet you were a damn sight better than us. It was a horror show yeah. We’re going more and more towards hoof ball every single game and aren’t learning.

    Only a handful of fans made it up there and I feel sorry for those that did. Getting home at 3am for that absolute shite.
     
  17. PreedyPride

    PreedyPride Mediocrates

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    294 I think the announcer said, freezing their bollocks off too.
     
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  18. JamesTyke

    JamesTyke Registered User

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    At least one will be home by now, my old physics teacher - given we've not beaten Reading at Oakwell since the mid 90s I'm guessing he's never seen them lose here, the lucky tart. Fair play to those actually travelling up from Berkshire, hell of a trip.
     
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  19. ShorhamBlade

    ShorhamBlade Registered User

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    Hard to see past Barnsley and Luton as the latter are fading fast, if i had to pick a third it would be Charlton as they appear to be in free fall, and I think Paul Cook has a bit more about him than Lee Boyer. Shame really as Charlton are my favourite London club.

    That said a lot depends on January transfer window. Barnsley playing well but not getting the results.
     
  20. Cotterill:49

    Cotterill:49 Registered User

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    Barnsley are doomed for me. They've already got a lot of chasing to do, and they've never impressed me when I've seen them. With their transfer policy as well, they won't have a quick fix.

    For the other two, it's still very much in the balance but if I was tipping anyone I'd back it to be Wigan and Luton.
     

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