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The 2020 USA General Election

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by Marty_LFC, Jan 30, 2019.

  1. kloppbeliever

    kloppbeliever Registered User

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    Sincerely doubt it.

    Trump would have gone full on McCarthy on Sanders.

    We have to remember trump specifically targeted those states in 2016 and the end ignored the warnings locally. Trump expected to lose to Clinton but the mood for change was massive.

    The bird man made Obama look conservative to voters in the US I suspect.

    There is an subconscious reaction imo to another first (woman), more liberalism, more multiculturalism, more of Bill Clinton politics etc. The amount of vitriol poured upon Obama from day 1 was unreal, the fact is the people voted long before in Senate and house so I doubt somehow putting up a "solicalist" to give the riches money away would have gone down well.

    In the end the dnc had their choice a second time, Bird man v the senile old fool. They absolutely chose Biden and Beenie knew the score the minute covid hit. Bernie put america first by giving biden a free run at the presidential campaigning and protect the guy from debates etc.

    That's my opinion anyway.

    My opinion is Biden should announce immediate tax cuts over and above trump to buy votes at this point lol. The only thing keeping trump in the race is people's unwinding faith in his economic policy. (And China rhetoric it must be said)
     
  2. Bacchus

    Bacchus Revolt Against the (post-)Modern World

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    I think Trump could have thrown all the vitriol in the world at Sanders though and it still wouldn't have worked. He could have accused him of being a Chinese plant or a front for a communist revolution and every other conspiracy theory and slander in the book and I still don't think it would have worked enough to beat him in certain places. Maybe it would have worked in suburbs and on traditional Republicans and middle class liberals who look like they've seen a ghost if you say 'socialism', But that probably isn't enough to swing the whole race because after four years of Trump a lot of the disgruntled blue collar voters that backed him in 2016 haven't really seen any improvement in their lives or economic prospects and with a deep recession now looming over them because of coronavirus.

    They're going to be the same sort of voters that in 2016 were saying 'f*** it I've got nothing left to lose' and would likely be the same when offered a promise of an economic safety net, universal healthcare and policies they'll actually feel the benefit of rather than empty talk and bluster from Trump. There's enough of them in the Rust Belt and Midwest to swing marginal states there, even if it meant Trump shows stronger elsewhere on the map because of middle class voters scared about 'socialism' turning up elsewhere.

    I think you're half right about Sanders conceding for the benefit of the wider race, but Biden and the DNC were also appearing to warm up to and accept some of his platform and adopt it into their platform for the general election as if to signal if he stands aside they'll listen to him. But then look what's happened there, they've completely back-pedalled and are no longer talking about universal healthcare or student debt in favour of the usual mainstream DNC platform and some virtue signalling about race and inclusivity.
     
  3. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    538's model has seen some interesting changes in the last week with Ohio, North Carolina and ME-2 all having Biden as favourite albeit by less than 1pt in every case. They're all basically coin-flips but it's the first time since the model launched that Biden has gone ahead in those states. 538 as a result now rates Biden at 77 and Trump at 23 overall.

    For what it's worth (not a lot) here's my map of how I see things right now. Basing it on polling, where the candidates are spending their money and most importantly, guesswork.

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. kloppbeliever

    kloppbeliever Registered User

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  5. RedDevilsShinja

    RedDevilsShinja In need of a new username

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    You think MN is a strongly leaning towards Biden as that? If so why would Trump be spending so much time there? It'll have been his 4th time there on Wednesday.
     
  6. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    It's one of the only places Trump can target for expansion based on 2016 but if I feel as I do that he won't hold onto both WI and MI it seems unlikely he'll somehow manage to expand into MN given it has been the most reliably blue of the 3 going back I think to the 70s. Famously it's the only state Reagan failed to win in '84 (besides D.C). It was close 4 years ago but Trump actually did marginally worse than Romney did in 2012.

    Clinton's widespread unpopularity IMO played a major role as to why states like MN were so close in 2016, I think around this time she was getting polls of like -15 on a regular basis, both in terms of national polling and favorability Biden just isn't anywhere near as disliked.

    Time will tell of course like I said it's a lot of guesswork this far out especially but I'd be very surprised if MN went red, if it did then it'd signal a crushing Trump win.
     
    #1826 Adam, Sep 26, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2020
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  7. RedDevilsShinja

    RedDevilsShinja In need of a new username

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    Could it not be the case he takes MN but loses MI or WI? I really don't think that Trump is that stupid to spend so much time there if it wasn't in play.
     
  8. Guyett

    Guyett Posts gifs

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    I mean.... have you not been paying attention the last 4 years?
     
  9. Burg

    Burg Bees Up Fulham Down

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    It’s his most likely pick up but there has been absolutely nothing to suggest he’ll pick it up.
     
  10. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    Clearly they think it's in play but it's a strange move to focus there and denude of resources states you've already proven you can win. Especially as in 2018 there was a significant uptick in support for the Democrats in both the mid-terms and Governors race. Evidently the Biden campaign is taking the threat seriously and have invested resources to shore up support.

    However, MN won't do Trump any good if he loses AZ which is in greater danger of flipping and it'll still come down to NC, FL and PN and Trump in this scenario would need to win all 3 whereas Biden would need only 1. AZ is an interesting state because it has a severe impact on Trump's path to victory, without it he can only afford to lose MI and WI.

    This is all academic though because we still have debates to come and they could shift things very significantly in ways we can't foresee.
     
    #1830 Adam, Sep 26, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2020
  11. Marty_LFC

    Marty_LFC American't

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    Trump is definitely thinking he can take Minnesota this year. He has a ton of momentum in the Iron Range in Northeast Minnesota. That area went for Clinton in 2016 and the only ones outside of the Twin Cities and their suburbs to do that. I'm not sure how many voters there are in that area but surely it won't be difficult to make up the margin of around 50K votes if he takes that whole region.

    Nothing's for sure, of course depending on turnout in the Twin Cities could easily just outnumber the rest of the state, but Minnesota is absolutely there for the taking for Trump. It's this cycle's 2016 Pennsylvania/Wisconsin.
     
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  12. saint_clark

    saint_clark Up the Saints

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    I see the Dems are going in hard on their celebrity endorsements again, this time having Biden actually speak to them personally in "interviews".
    Do they not realise that people don't actually vote based on how multimillionaire celebs who are detached from real world problems tell them to?

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
     
  13. Flip Duckling

    Flip Duckling Registered User

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    Remind me who the President is again :laugh:
     
  14. SALTIRE

    SALTIRE Fear is the mind-killer

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    I'm sure Trump can wheel out Schwarzenegger, Stallone, Clint Eastwood and Jon Voight for his celeb endorsements.
     
  15. Flip Duckling

    Flip Duckling Registered User

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    Arnie hates Trump.
     
  16. SALTIRE

    SALTIRE Fear is the mind-killer

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    Thats a surprise. So he does have a touch of morality.
     
  17. Marty_LFC

    Marty_LFC American't

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    Just replace him with James Woods, Rosanne Barr, and the dude from Happy Days that wasn't the Fonz.
     
  18. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    Ron Howard?
     
  19. Marty_LFC

    Marty_LFC American't

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    Scott Baio.

    Also Dean Caine AKA the worst Superman is another.

    A real whose who :laugh:
     
  20. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    I forgot he was in it. When I think of Scott Baio I think Diagnosis Murder :laugh:
     

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