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The Conservative Party - What a total mess?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by brewer, Sep 21, 2017.

  1. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    It's got to be worrying for Labour that despite the chaos going on within the government they're not really pushing ahead in the polls. Latest YouGov poll suggests the Tories are at 40% and Labour 43% with the Tories not losing support since last month, despite multiple resignations within the cabinet.

    I suspect that the reason that hasn't had a great impact is that frankly most people don't pay attention to or care that much about who is or isn't in the cabinet. It's hard to conceive of a scenario in which the government looks more shambolic any time soon, if not now then one wonders when Labour will be able to take advantage.
     
  2. The Doc

    The Doc #freegabrielheinze

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    They won't imo.

    This labour party is the exact same one, led by the exact same leadership that was shambolic in it's dealings up until 2 years/18 months ago.

    Propped up by "the membership" and piss weak opposition to a leadership challenge.

    Now whilst Labour have certainly pulled there socks up over that time frame, the main reason they have made any traction whatsoever is due to the equally shambolic Tory party.

    It's the main reason they made ground in the GE too but somehow I am supposed to believe a country that on the whole has rejected socialism for nearly 30 years has suddenly embraced those ideals.

    Any credible centrist party would have cleaned up at the GE and will do at the next GE should one be around.
     
  3. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    I agree on that but I do think Corbyn has made a genuine impact that he's benefiting from from his own work. It should worry Labour supporters though that Labour aren't running away with this at a time when the government is having a nightmare and has a very unpopular PM sitting at the top.

    The reason that's not happening still is due to Corbyn. It's always going to come back to Corbyn and his base. Activists can drink the kool-aid all day long for all the good it will do, but it's the same offer that was made in the summer that the public rejected. No matter how it's spun.
     
  4. ritchie_50

    ritchie_50 Registered User

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    Those 40% don't want a Corbyn government, a high percentage won't want the Tories either in their current shambolic state but would fear Corbyn's policies.

    If 43% do want a Corbyn government then that is a huge number and has proven people wrong who said he couldn't poll that well.

    A more Neoliberal, Tory-lite New Labour party would appeal to a wide section of that 40%, many of whom were Blair voters. At the same time though they'd lose a lot of traction with the 43% Corbyn has mobilised. The youth vote would subside and they'd also be further hit in Brexit regions as New Labour were/are very pro-Eu and Remain. They'd then lose ground there to the Tories which Corbyn did very well to hold off last year., let alone make gains.

    Of course within that 43% are a good number who'd vote Labour no matter what and within the 40% of Tories who'd vote Tory no matter what. I think Corbyn is however responsible for Labour being in the 40+% category while also responsible for the Tories still polling at 40%. The idea of Corbyn as PM is at least mobilising the right in fear.

    If there was a David Miliband-type leading Labour then the Tories would fear losing power but wouldn't fear his policies because they're on a similar wavelength (i.e. Blair).
     
    #144 ritchie_50, Nov 12, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2017
  5. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    I broadly agree and the last part is most salient to me. If David Miliband had been made leader, I suspect Labour would be in power again by now. The problem there is again Corbyn's base, the properly left-wing Labour supporters who would rather vote in Ed Miliband, who was more ideologically aligned to them than his brother, but who had little chance of winning. Idealism trumped pragmatism and politics is much more about about pragmatism, it's about compromise.

    That will always undermine the left. The right does a better job in general of rallying around a broad agenda despite disagreements, whereas the hard-left demand ideological purity and would rather Corbyn finish second than Blair 2.0 finish first. In this game you get nothing for second place, you get less than nothing because it means the other side gets to rule the roost.
     
  6. ritchie_50

    ritchie_50 Registered User

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    David Miliband would have most probably won in 2015. I don't think Ed particularly lost on policy though in that election, people just didn't take to him as a leader. I thought it was a shame because I broadly liked his policies and I think he'd have at least made a better PM than Cameron who could beat Ed and PR and spin but had zero substance over style. I often liked the substance behind Ed whereas his brother would have matched Cameron for style. The biggest mistake Ed made was allowing Cameron to set the agenda that 'the mess left behind by Labour' and Labour caused the crash. Again, that's down to Cameron knowing how to use spin.

    Ed also had the full force of the British press against him (post-Leveson particularly) and he was absolutely slaughtered in the build up to the election. Murdoch and co wouldn't have been so against his brother.

    The Tories/the right value power first and foremost. The left tend to value principles more.

    The right of the Labour party can be idiotic though. Trying to force Corbyn out while Angela Eagle and Owen Smith form leadership bids. Labour would have been wiped out last year if that happened and these non-entities became leader. I always said keep Corbyn unless someone who can do a better job and get better results emerges. Put up or shut up, basically. Even in 2015 the other candidates he ran against were weak and that was why he put his name forward in the first place.

    What I do think is important though is there's a left/alternative voice in parliament. If it's always a Tory government against a New Labour type government then you end up with the same established order every term.. It's like how it's gone in America where it's the Republicans against a Democrat party controlled by the likes of Hilary Clinton. Eventually you end up with Trump because people become so fed up with it.
     
  7. Mowgli

    Mowgli Registered User

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    Can't wait for brewer's view on this as it will give us all a bloody good laugh :laugh::laugh:
     
  8. brewer

    brewer Registered

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    This thread is about The Conservative Party not the Labour Party! (Laugh away) so I am not going to comment.

    I am just happy that the Conservatives are keeping us entertained & amused with sacking a Cabinet member every week, usually for groping or self interest but never surprisingly for incompetence. I suspect that incompetence is a prerequisite for membership.
     
  9. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    In the end you can have all the policy ideas in the world but if people don't trust you to be strong then you're done for and Ed Miliband didn't help himself in that regard. Ed Miliband exuded weakness, whatever that means exactly, I found it impossible to take him seriously even when he was a junior minister. Cameron toyed with him in the Commons and it was embarrassing at times, an ineffective opposition is to no-ones benefit in the end. Governments need effective opposition to keep them honest, whereas weakness brings out the worst in a government that doesn't fear being ousted.

    I'd amend that to putting a greater emphasis on winning. Which lends itself to pragmatism. Whereas the left tend to be more ideologically rigid and inflexible, at least when it comes to its base.

    None of those who were better alternatives to Corbyn challenged him in the end. It was down to Eagle who was hopelessly weak and Smith who might actually be to the left of Corbyn. I think there's plenty of room for a sensible left-wing alternative, but it can't be the sort of leftism that you get from Momentum and the Owen Jones' of this world. It has to be able to actually win and be willing to compromise to achieve results. In the end though, I'm something of a centrist so I would say that.
     
  10. brewer

    brewer Registered

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    I have entered a sweep on who will be the next cabinet Minister to go? Each Way sacked or resigned. Dave (Did I say that? But I meant something completely different) Davies must be favourite along with the guy with porn on his PC.
    Then again if you are really up for it what are the odds on the double Johnson! Boris' his dad from I'm Celebrity - Get Me Out of Here & Boris from I'm an Incompetent Foreign Secretary send me to the back benches. Only after they have had a dish of kangaroo balls for lunch.
    Who will be next?
     
  11. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    No-one cares what you're doing you senile old drunk.
     
    Mowgli and Kiz like this.
  12. m.oneillAVFC

    m.oneillAVFC Registered

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    Polls are nearly always wrong these days .
     
  13. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    Depends on the poll and how they're interpreted. On the day of the last election YouGov correctly predicted a Tory minority government by saying they'd win 302 seats (They won 317) and Labour would win 269 (They won 262). Every other major pollster predicted a sizeable Tory majority.

    Generally speaking polls have value to people when they support their position and no value when they don't. Confirmation bias is pretty rampant.
     
  14. m.oneillAVFC

    m.oneillAVFC Registered

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    Pretty much proving my point Brexit and the US election were all to cock as well .
     
  15. Adam

    Adam Are you cereal?

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    You made that point in response to a pollster that got our last election right. Which is why I cited its poll on Labour/Tories current standing. No-one said polls were infallible.

    Take it all away and you have zero way of judging the public mood on anything. The alternative is Brewer talking to 3 people he knows in a bar and judging the entire national mood over a pint or 10.
     
  16. smogtilldeath

    smogtilldeath Registered User

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    Yup, i don't care if people my age dismiss all the shit the man is attached to, i still refuse to vote for him. I'm not changing my mind either.

    If may's government collapses and it leads to another election, i'm still voting tory. If i'm in the minority, then so be it. I'm still refusing to vote for him and abbott and mcdonnell and thornberry. His fans can claim "vote for policies, not people" bullshit all they want, if farage came out with that set of policies then i can guarantee a large chuck of labour still wouldn't vote for farage. So they obviously don't believe the stuff they're saying.

    People can dismiss the hammer and sickle mcdonnell appeared in front of, ignore the fact corbyn's campaign advisor is a communist, and ignore the far left element in the current labour party all they want, but i'm not. If may had a campaign adviser who was from a formerly fascist party, made a speech in front of a nazi flag and had followers who were largely pro nazi then she would be rightly lynched for it. Corbyn gets a free pass though because politics that steers too much to the left apparently isn't as bad as it steering too much to the right (i'm not saying corbyn is far left, but some of his followers are, and they will have sizeable control themselves if in power)
     
  17. m.oneillAVFC

    m.oneillAVFC Registered

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    Polls are a total waste , that's all I'm saying .My own feeling is talking to my many Tory friends, that if an election was held in the new year , pretty sure we would end up with a Labour government .Yes and I know that's my own poll, but I do live in Solihull , and I have never heard so much criticism of the Tory party in what is their one of strongholds in the Midlands .
     
  18. Mowgli

    Mowgli Registered User

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    :laugh:
     
  19. TLC

    TLC There Can Be Only One
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    I remember growing up that they could have pinned a blue rosette on a donkey and it would have won in Solihull :)

    Last time I was in Knowle though there was a marked change a big left swing had seemed to have taken place in the under 45 crowd .... it was like there had been a mass conversion to the 'Cult of Corbyn' at the Wilsons :(

    It leaves me feeling very uncomfortable when someone starts telling me why the rich should be paying more and doing more for them and making their lives better (while they swig back a pint and have a fag and tell me about their fun weekend motorbike and new car and their 3 holidays so far this year) why those who pay higher rates of tax should be paying more, giving more, deserving less......

    I can't afford to be in the pub every night, I have a 'dog-bus' for a car, its comfortable, practical and economical and not in the least bit sexy - and I'm going to be paying for it for a few more years, and no I can't afford a second 'fun' vehicle, we've had 3 'proper' holidays together since 2011 and more would have been a struggle.


    They're talking about me

    Apparently I need to pay more .... :no:
     
    #159 TLC, Nov 15, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2017
  20. Andy SFC

    Andy SFC Registered User

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    The beer and fags OK, but who are these people who go on 3 holidays a year but don't work? They are figments of Daily Mail readers imagination. It is a struggle and not getting easier any time soon.
     

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