Two questions - Who do you think will be in them at full-time on April 28th and how many points do you think will be enough to get you in? I'll go for Wrexham, Mansfield, York and Luton. 82 points needed.
Wrexham - I think it's pretty impossible for them not to be in the Play-Off's at the end of April. They have a 22-point advantage over York, who only have 27 points left to play for, which would require relegation form from Wrexham in their final 8 games. Mansfield - I think they are on a tremendous run of form, but the fact the other sides around them have a couple of games in hand on them, may be a stumbling block. As long as they keep winning games, then I don't see why they won't be amongst the final four. Their 7-point lead over York should be enough. Southport - I'd imagine they're probably everybody's 'surprise package' of this season. They've shot up the league in recent months, and they haven't lost too many games just lately. Surprisingly, they're much better away than they are at home, and this has seen them push their way into the Play-Off places. Tony Gray is on form, and it's always a good thing that your frontmen are hitting form at the business end of the season. Fantastic win at York last time out has given them the momentum I think they'll keep until the end of April and secure their place in the Play-Off's. Luton - Unbelievably inconsistent, again. Just when you think they can surge towards the Football League, they drop far too many points on the road which sees them now trying to hang on to a Play-Off place. Inevitably, they'll scrape through the final few games to secure that final place, but they've not looked good for quite a while now. Losses at Forest Green and Barrow, in amongst a very poor draw with struggling Darlington, is the sole reason why I think they'll still be a Blue Square Bet Premier side in the 2012/2013 season. York - They're on the fringes of the Play-Off places, but suffered a setback against Southport at the weekend. They travel to Luton this Friday, which could ultimately decide the fate of either side. A win for Luton and it looks a massive uphill battle for York. Fleetwood is the only top side they have left to face, so it all depends on if they've got the bottle to put a run together in the next four weeks or so. Kidderminster - They're in virtually the same position as York, however, their circumstances are a little tougher due to the fact they've played a few games more than everybody else, and only have 6 games remaining. This may play into their hands as their rivals will have games coming thick and fast, and they'll be fatigued, but that doesn't necessarily mean those sides in question won't pick up points in their games in hand. Too much for them to do, imo. Gateshead - They started off brightly and looked a good bet for automatic promotion, never mind the Play-Off's, but they've gone downhill post-Christmas and although top scorer Jon Shaw is in good form, they seem to be throwing away points left, right and centre, and I think this is why they'll miss out completely. Grimsby - The furthest team down the league table that actually have a realistic shot of making the Play-Off's. Their run of form since November has been nothing short of impeccable, and at one point, they were the highest scorers in English football, on a fantastic run of form and had Liam Hearn firing on all cylinders. They've slipped a little since with a couple of unexpected results and a fairly unlucky loss away at Fleetwood, but they're still in with a shout. It's a big ask, but if they can string together a run of wins between now and April 28th, they could just sneak it. Personally, I can't see any of the top five changing between now and April 28th. If I had to pick one of the sides who I thought were the most likely to drop out, it'd be Southport.
Wrexham must be a little worried about the play-offs. The gap between them and the rest is huge and something tells me that the play-off lottery will be a big banana skin for them, especially if they play Luton. It just feels like something that could ruin a season of good work for me.
I think Mansfield for me are the team, okay they lost at Fleetwood last weekend, but i dont no if many teams have come away from there with either a draw or a win. Mansfield have goals in them, and plus i think Matt Green has done well and could well fire them into the Football League like he did with us.
I am worried TBH. We could well finish 25-30 points ahead of 5th spot and lose in the semi's. Last season we blew it against Luton. We know the rules but still is a bastard to lose in them.
Sorry if this is a daft question, but are the Play-Offs in the Conference the same as in the League 2nd -v- 5th and 3rd -v- 4th; with home and away legs; and then the final at a neutral ground?
That was like us the last 2 seasons. We have been points ahead of most other teams, but ended up losing. It's the way it goes. However, i doubt anybody will be worried about playing Luton in the play off's at present.
Dan's analysis is pretty fair, though I wouldn't say Southport have shot up in recent months, they've been in and around the play-offs for most of the season - no lower than 7th since October in fact. Oddly though, they've only recently reached a positive goal difference! The last two seasons, the team in 5th has reached 78 points, the two seasons before that were both 81. If I had to put my neck on the line, I'd say Wrexham and Mansfield, then it's two from six - with games in hand probably make that two from ourselves, York and Southport. We're not in good form at the moment (1 win in 6), which I think might cost us. A good result against York on Friday though and I'll probably change my mind!
Games in hand mean nothing unless you win them, though. I'd expect you to beat Ebbsfleet and York to beat Cambridge, mainly because those sides won't have much to play for. But your trip to Gateshead and York's to Newport next week are really tough ones to have as games in hand because of their importance to your opponents. I think Friday will be very significant if one side or the other wins (draw please). As for us, I expect a lot of Town fans will reckon it's all over for us after tonight and the fact we've only won two of our last eight would back that up in their minds. Injuries, particularly the ones to Hearn, haven't helped us lately, but I still feel we're firmly in the mix, particularly when three of the teams around us have still got to come to us.
if we lose to fleetwood then its the play offs for us.WHAT SCARES THAT THE HEADS MIGHT GO DOWN.mansfield scare me .
Either us or Fleetwood will get 90 + points and have to make do with the playoffs. What a bastard for either team.
Yeh, as I said on another thread its ridiculous. On current form, both Fleetwood and Wrexham will get over 100 points, and one of them probably wont go up. Rules are rules I suppose.
Not complaining about the situation, just making an observation. Rules are set out at the seasons start and everyone is aware that one goes up and the next four playoff. If the team in fifth place went up then the fans of that club would not complain. Still think we will go up as champions anyway. Not come this far to suddenly think it is all over.
Lutons Last games Tue 3 19:45 A Gateshead BSQP Sat 7 15:00 A Braintree Town BSQP Mon 9 15:00 H Hayes&Yeading BSQP Sat 14 15:00 A Alfreton Town BSQP Tue 17 19:45 H Ebbsfleet BSQP Sat 21 15:00 H Kidderminster BSQP Sat 28 13:00 A Fleetwood Town BSQP Southport's last games Sat 31 Mar Southport v Hayes & Yeading Utd 15:00 Sat 07 Apr Southport v Kidderminster Harrie 15:00 Mon 09 Apr Barrow v Southport 15:00 Sat 14 Apr Tamworth v Southport 15:00 Sat 21 Apr Southport v Ebbsfleet United 15:00 Sat 28 Apr Grimsby Town v Southport 13:00 York's Last games Tue 27th (A) Bath City Fri 30th (A) Luton Town Tue 3rd (A) Newport Sat 7th (H) Fleetwood Town Mon 9th (A) Alfreton Sat 14th (H) Newport Tue 17th (A) Cambridge United Sat 21st (A) Braintree Sat 28th (H) Forest Green Rovers Mansfield's Last Games Sat 31 15:00 H Ebbsfleet BSQP Sat 7 15:00 A Kettering Town BSQP Mon 9 15:00 H Stockport BSQP Sat 14 15:00 A Hayes&Yeading BSQP Fri 20 19:30 H Wrexham BSQP Sat 28 13:00 A Kidderminster BSQP Wrexham's Last games Sat 31 15:00 A Cambridge BSQP Fri 6 15:00 H Alfreton Town BSQP Tue 10 19:30 A Fleetwood Town BSQP Sat 14 15:00 H Grimsby Town BSQP Fri 20 19:30 A Mansfield Town BSQP Tue 24 19:45 A Newport County BSQP Sat 28 13:00 H Braintree Town BSQP
