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2022/23 Relegation Thread

Discussion in 'Premier League' started by StevieMac, Jun 1, 2022.

  1. StevieMac

    StevieMac Registered User

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    I've taken the liberty of starting this one on the same date as last year's! What about making this thread even more interesting by seeing who can predict the bottom three – in order – with their number of points? This unofficial comp. will end at 11 p.m. on 1 Sep., when the transfer window closes.

    To assist people, and more importantly show how the gap between the 'haves' at the top and the 'bottom-feeders' has widened, I'm uploading a table. It shows some first-tier relegation stats going back 40 seasons (yes I must have too much time on my hands...) People will see that the no. of points needed to be *sure* of staying up – what I call the "safe total" – has declined steadily.

    So then, what will be the safe total this year?

    Rem., it's only a bit of fun!
     

    Attached Files:

  2. Garrincha

    Garrincha Football, Math, Cubing

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    (As of 1/6)
    18. Southampton
    19. Bournemouth
    20. Forest

    (As of 20/7)
    18. Fulham
    19. Bournemouth
    20. Forest
     
    #2 Garrincha, Jun 1, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2022
  3. Kirby

    Kirby We count the votes

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    I will revisit this prediction in August when we've seen what teams do in the transfer market but if I had to guess now I'd go with this as the bottom three:

    Leeds United
    Fulham
    Bournemouth

    No idea on points but I can see the bottom two being cut adrift before the end of the season.
     
  4. SamB_SCFC

    SamB_SCFC FF Old Skool

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    Obviously everything will change once signings are made. The three promoted teams will obviously start as relegation favourites. Will be interesting to see whether Mitrovic can finally translate his Championship goalscoring form consistently to the Premier League. Forest look a little weak but they'll have the support factor that we had in 2008/09 when we'd been out of the top flight for 23 years ourselves and the atmosphere was just electric. Setting records for crowd noise and all sorts and literally scaring some teams into submission. There could be a similar effect with the Forest fans who will be determined to make their Premier League return count and establish themselves back where they believe they belong. It worked for us for a decade, could do the same for them.

    From the established teams, Southampton seem to be on a long term downward curve that reminds me of how we were the season we got relegated. Everything going stale and club leadership seemingly unaware of the danger. If they keep Hasenhüttl on it could be the same mistake as we made in summer 2017 by keeping Hughes on despite the obvious decline and malaise in the previous season.

    Leeds also had a very poor season and were lucky to survive. They have a big summer ahead and they must get their recruitment right because there's too many Championship players in that squad. Wolves are also a wild card. They finished the season poorly and are struggling to score goals. If they start the season as they finished last season then they'll have problems.
     
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  5. LUFCAndy

    LUFCAndy Registered User

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    Fairly pointless at this early stage, but thats never stopped me before!

    18. Saints 33
    19. Forest 29
    20. Bournemouth 29

    Obviously complete guesses at this stage. Generally 1 or 2 of the promoted lot struggle, maybe Mitrovic will come good this time...

    Went Southampton as the existing team to drop, just because they are losing Broja and not sure who scored them goals (especially if JWP leaves too)

    We were poor and lucky to stay up last year, and will probably be losing our best player. I can see from the outside why people would pick us as likely to drop. However, we're expecting to invest quite a bit this summer, as a fan base i think we're thinking/hoping that the board have learnt from this year.
     
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  6. njmcfc1894

    njmcfc1894 Registered User

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    United , Liverpool and Fulham
     
  7. LUFCAndy

    LUFCAndy Registered User

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    Looking at the betting market Bet365 relegation odds:

    Bournemouth 8/13
    Forest 5/6
    Fulham 6/5
    Brentford 9/4
    Leeds 9/4
    Everton 10/3
    Southampton 10/3
    Wolves 4/1
    Palace 11/2
    Brighton 8/1
    Villa 10/1
    Leicester 16/1
    West Ham 25/1
    Newcastle 50/1
     
  8. AFCB-Nutter

    AFCB-Nutter Marauding Chezzer!

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    Don't mind me, just pulling up a nice comfy seat for myself here, with easy access to the bar :)

    We're all about being hard to beat, grinding it out, and being more than the sum of our parts. That's all good stuff, I do worry that it only takes you so far in the PL though, ultimately you need the quality somewhere. I wouldn't want us to go mad with signings and upset what we're actually good at, which is the organisation and spirit we built last season. Not sure if we'll have the level of quality and numbers of goals in the squad needed though.

    A lot will rest on Solanke and Billing bringing some of their Championship goals and quality to this level consistently, something they've only done in flashes so far in their careers. I think we've got a lot of players who could fit in that gap between the two divisions.

    As an early punt, any 2 of the promoted 3 to get relegated. For the other spot: I gather Southampton are a bit worried, Brentford might get that 2nd season hoodoo that sometimes hits, Leeds will need a lot of improvement.. so someone like that.
     
  9. Copacetic

    Copacetic Registered User

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    Brentford are one to watch. Smallest budget in the league and probably losing their best player, plus second season syndrome. Think they will struggle big time.

    Forest will have a few difficulties because of the loan players they had. Seems unlikely they can retain Garner or Spence who were particularly good for them. They also don't have a striker of any repute at the moment.

    Southampton seem to do just about enough but they are treading water under Hassenhuttl.

    Bournemouth and Fulham obviously have to be in the mix because 1 or 2 of those promoted teams tend to go down.

    Leeds need big improvement but what I would say is: (1) we had the worst injury record of any PL team last season. That presumably cannot repeat itself, especially with a change in manager and training regime; (2) our capacity to spend is probably better than the above teams. We've already spent 25m on a centre mid. Having said that, the jury is still out on Marsch and it's very much possible we will lose Raphinha and/or Phillips which would have a big impact.
     
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  10. BleedsIsDead

    BleedsIsDead They Love You When You're Dead

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    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - The amount of loan players Forest relied on last season will probably see them struggle massively this season. Over 1/3rd of the team that started in the play-off final don’t actually belong to them. Zinc from Watford looks like he’ll be cheap to get full-time and they might get Garner on loan again but Lowe, Davis & Spence could end up costing £45-50m to re-sign. That’s a huge chunk out of your budget to not improve your squad.

    Bournemouth and Fulham are in the same boat as each other, both have squads that can scrape survival but both have managers that haven’t proven themselves good enough to manage in the Premier League yet. I remember Fulham’s last spell up here where Parker always did just enough to survive and in the end the went down. Both might actually benefit from a slow start, sacking their manager and replacing him with Dyche before anyone else does.

    Out of the non-promoted teams, Saints, Brentford, Leeds & Wolves look the most likely to struggle. Leeds might spend big this summer but the 5 sub rules and games more squeezed in means they need to sign quality and quantity, which is tricky. Wolves and Saints were in free fall at the end of last season & Brentford were before signing Eriksen. If he doesn’t stay it’s hard to see them doing anywhere near as well.


    Obviously the likes of ourselves, Palace & Villa could all get dragged in to it too. However I’ll stick with my bottom 3 being Forest, Saints, Leeds.
     
    #10 BleedsIsDead, Jun 1, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2022
  11. Del_Boy

    Del_Boy Registered User

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    Whilst the short summer window due to the World Cup will be a hindrance to get so many bodies in for us, conversley, the World Cup may also be a blessing as a long break allows us to take stock of what the Premier League is about and how we can adapt after sampling it first hand and allow the team to gel.

    That's what I'm telling myself anyway...
     
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  12. Addick By Nature

    Addick By Nature Registered User

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    Palace and 2 others.

    Probably 2 of the promoted sides but definitely Palace.
     
  13. RednBlacklife

    RednBlacklife Registered User

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    Southampton, Forest and Brentford.

    Out of blind bias loyalty I won't put us in there. But I'll be surprised if we survive - the bright spot being that we often didn't play that well for large chunks of the season, but when we did it was against the better teams too. And still got promoted.
     
  14. RedDogChris

    RedDogChris Registered User

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    I'm checking myself in for the season as well
     
  15. JimJams

    JimJams Registered User

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    Oh you!
     
  16. RedDogChris

    RedDogChris Registered User

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    We'd be stupid to spend more than 30 million on the three, we are all about getting good value for our buck these days so I'd be very disappointing if we shipped the amount your suggesting
     
  17. Kirby

    Kirby We count the votes

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    Thank God. I was getting worried.
     
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  18. Addick By Nature

    Addick By Nature Registered User

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    If not this season, then definitely the next.
     
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  19. Dawg

    Dawg Class of 1865 ✩✩

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    Think we might see a lot of this thread.
     
  20. RedDogChris

    RedDogChris Registered User

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    In September we thought we'd be in the championship relegation thread for the season so this is an uprade :laugh:
     

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