England have three home games. Croatia & Czechia both have two away games, and a neutral game against each other. In the context of the group that's a huge benefit for England, and that's the main factor in why I think they'll win the group. Winning the group means you'll likely play France, Germany or Portugal at Wembley. Second would likely be Sweden, Spain or Poland in Copenhagen. Third would be the winners of Group B or C. In theory, finishing second might give you a better chance of avoiding a strong nation in the last 16, but if you were to avoid doing so then you'd be facing one in the quarters for sure.