not a particularly interesting topic for me but I think a pool on how long the northern Ireland assembly lasts.might be in order. sinn fein are actively rubbing it in with glee about their first first minister. in reality the UK government denying public servents rightful pay rises that the rest of the UK got brought them.put on the streets. the dup had to fold and go back in but will be looking for a way out ASAP imo. my bet is just as soon as the pay rises are handed out some reason will be found to collapse it. Is this even registering as a thing on the "mainland"? (I visited a company in Belfast on a project and they were always on about their business with the mainland) needless to say they did not mean continental Europe.
Based on the mainstream reporting that I've seen, I suspect it's mainly registering on the mainland in the enduring context of Brexit and the perception that the DUP has gone back on elements of its opposition to the present arrangements between the UK and EU, rather than anything else. I have a similar lack of optimism about the assembly lasting and my suspicion is that an issue will emerge from the implementation of the deal between the UK Government and the DUP because the fundamental problem is hard-line Unionists, both inside and outside the DUP, simply do not understand the consequences of the Brexit that they wanted.
It needs just one small change to ensure the assembly doesn't collapse again - no attendance = no pay.
the dup have one objective and one only. imo they say brexit as a means to further that objective by getting as hard a border as possible and breaking down the institutions set up in the agreement. now that the sinn fein person is talking about a decade of opportunity I think the dup will secure the 50% of workers in Northern Ireland (public sector) a big pay rise and walk as fast as possible to shit this down and prevent any votes that speed up towards any votes the sinn fein side think they can get. the green lane in Belfast port is hilarious as they couldn't have named it a worse colour for British goods staying in Britain from a unionist point of view. Donaldson has seen the strikes and protests and has known he had to fold without achieving anything real on his 7 red lines. the fact his party was live streaming out the private begging and cajoling he was doing to get them back in says the hard liners will be back out shortly. Donaldson put in an unknown as second minister too. nobody would stand beside the sinn fein first minister. he is back in West minister now plotting imo. anyway, as eea status for the UK was ruled out even by May never mind the hardliners brexiteers that meant the DUP were always going to be shafted by the tories in the end. that's what happened so the border on the Irish Sea is now a real thing in paperwork terms whereas their dreamed of checkpoints on the Irish border didn't happen. unless there's active terrorism they will never happen so i think a collapsed assembly would be better then the unionist paramilitaries decided that their way to closing thst border. protect the status quo is my feeling on their approach now.
One area where I can certainly see the DUP agitating and plotting is in the supply of veterinary medicines to Northern Ireland given that Ian Paisley Jr was calling for unilateral action if a solution on permanent arrangements (the current grace period runs to the end of next year) isn't agreed by the spring. But what I find impossible to fathom, probably because I live to the east of the Irish Sea and am not familiar with the situation on the ground day to day, is how dismantling the institutions and mechanisms that have largely preserved peace for more than a quarter of a century now can be perceived to be a good thing. I know he's not DUP but listening to Jim Allister the other day was like listening to the ghost of Ian Paisley Sr. Have they really forgotten how much suffering endured for so long?
i have no idea either but it looks like the goal for each side is diametrically opposed to each other and in the end one side largely has what it wants already, if everything collapsed the ni stays in the UK and thats success for the dup no amount of business damage or public service damage would seem to matter to either side.
Just out of interest if a referendum was called on the unification of NI and ROI would both nations vote, or just NI?
it'd be hilarious if northern Ireland voted leave and the Republic voted no you keep them. my understanding is the reason for votes in the 90s was to remove clauses for the Irish constitution I'd presume there would be different worded votes for each state
I would expect both would vote separately and both would have to say "join" etc for it to happen. Maybe they will put a certain percentage backstop in to stop NI doing something silly over a couple of percent
Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of Democratic Unionist Party after being charged with historical allegations Jeffrey Donaldson has resigned as the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) after being charged by police with “allegations of an historical nature”. In a statement released on Friday, the party said it had received a letter from Mr Donaldson “confirming that he has been charged with allegations of an historical nature and indicating that he is stepping down as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party with immediate effect”. The DUP’s senior party officers have now suspended the Lagan Valley MP “in accordance with the party rules ... pending the outcome of a judicial process”. DUP deputy leader Gavin Robinson has been appointed interim party leader, a move unanimously backed following an emergency meeting of party officers on Friday.
unbelievable. I'd give that assembly 6 months. parishes put in for all public servants amd they will collapse it again.
