You say that, but I can picture in my mind's eye the headlines: "Dead MP in £250,000 expenses scandal".
I wasn't going to bother voting today, all we have in our area is a police commissioner. That was until I saw that Tories were the current holders. Just switched on BBC election coverage for a quick catch up, switched over already. I'd rather not watch Kuenssberg simping for the Tories all night.
I have voted Independent for my local councillor, and, to my embarrasment and shame I voted for Andy Burnham in the Mayoral election. That's the first time I've ever actually bothered to even vote in a Mayoral election, mostly because I don't see the point of having a Mayor but also because Burnham's invariably the only one I've heard of and he hates motorists . . .
Right now the tories are trying to spin the mayoral elections as proof this election is irrelevant while Labour are trying to spin the Blackpool by-election. In the middle I am seeing the tories are on track for losing their 500 seats as predicted but so far Labour have only picked up about half with a major independent vote. Obviously that will be negated in fptp Labour have won the North Yorkshire mayoral election as well. It'll be interesting to see what happens in East midland.
How so? I mean I think it'll be pretty close. Labour might suffer voter apathy, especially with young voters, but it would be a major shock if the Tory candidate wins because she seemed pretty mental. Granted, I live here, and I did no vote - but that is a decision I've decided to take across the board for the foreseeable. I do think it would be worrying for the city if Hall does get in given she has been accused of Islamophobia in the past. The last thing this city needs is a mayor fanning those flames. I get the impression Labour are managing expectations and reckon Khan will win, but it won't be a slam dunk as polling suggested.
Such a massively low turnout like we've seen can only be bad for Khan. Based on voting intentions including a lot of people who didn't turn up to vote.
Doesn't shock me. tbh I've barely felt the campaigning at all around the place beyond stuff appearing on my Twitter feed or reading the paper on the bus occasionally. I don't think Khan has been a particularly good mayor and I do think he largely belongs to the style over substance political skillset that blossomed in Labour from the Blair years. At the same time blaming issues like crime on Khan alone is stupid given issues with crime comes from the Tory cuts made over the past 14 years. The argument against ULEZ is also stupid. London needs to deal with the pollution issue. People who disagree with that, in a city with a world class public transport network, are numbskulls. Otherwise I despair at the state of London's nightlife right now. And under Khan this is getting worse and worse - despite appointing someone to be a 'Late Night Czar' to deal with the problem.
Pretty low turnout here in Peterborough. No overall majority here but a lot of the city is 'independent' rather than aligned to one of the major parties. Looking at the numbers so far, it doesn't seem that uncommon. Conservatives have clearly had a bad night but Labour probably haven't picked up enough of those lost councillors. Independent and green make up as many numbers as labour have at the moment so feels like there's still a lot of people wanting to vote "not Tory" but "not Labour" either. Given the seemingly low turnout too I'm still not entirely confident Labour will win a general election when it comes down to it. Lib Dem didn't even run in my ward and Labour were still a distant fourth behind the Independent (winner), Green and Conservatives.
I do hope Labour realises there's large swathes of votes they are ignoring with their current shift to the right.
Turnout for the next general election will probably be lower than the last few general elections, but it will be higher than the local elections, which always have a much lower turnout. Based on these elections, Labour are in a good position to win a big majority.
It is very interesting to see the lib dems amd greens to a lesser extent pick up a bigger proportion of gains by party size than labour. The larg number of independents is very interesting. The problem might see is its first past the paost so we are not talking about a pr system where these can trun into seats. If Labour get the most votes in a constituency or the lib dems then they will beat a tory. If people go vote green or independent then then cannot whine their constituencies are blue after. I think this is a genuine protest type vote and shows people want a different voice to starmer in many cases but the votes are not going to racists like reform
I know there's a lot of chat suggesting it's a lot tighter than the polls have been suggesting, but monitoring the betting odds will be a much better guide to what's going on than most.
Will the tories try spin less that 500 as a triumph? It seems sunak is safe from the 1922 committee so far.
