They're saying the quiet bit outloud now https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1760780642671845629?s=20
I heard on the radio that the "uncommitted" vote on the democratic primary ticket was over 100,000 with about 80% of the vatoes counted. In 2022 and 2016 it was 20,000 or so. This is the protest about the gaza war to give biden a message of how unhappy they are. 80,000 votes will clearly swing the presidential election in the state even if 25% of those just don't turn out. I also heard Biden met the unions on his last Michigan campaign trip but only sent officials to meet the African American or middle east American lobbies who then refused to meet with anyone. It looks to me like biden will lose michigan as a result. He's got the union endorsement but the young people won't turn out if he keeps that up.
That was how I was feeling earlier in the thread where all the hard work they did to regain the midwest could quickly be undone. On some sort of silver lining for him, a lot of the Dearborn activist leaders have said the uncommitted vote was more of a protest in the primary, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him in the general. The issue is that the Democrats will have a much less motivated electorate this time around (at least relative to 2020), and as you point out, young people's turnout will be a big question mark. Biden's began campaign mode as he's started to turn up to the late night shows, but it certainly doesn't seem to be landing as well as his campaign thought it would. He needs to get Barack and Bernie on the road ASAP.
It requires people to fear/lothe trump enough to come out and vote? Marking non aligned or uncommitted is an easy no loss issue for people to make a protest but biden won the state with about 150,000 margin in 2020. In 20202 most of the polls had biden winning it. Today thats not the case (not that they are very easily understood) 20,000 people just not showing up could swing it.
Yeah, I think it's said as long as the states fall the right way, Trump only technically needs 36% of the vote to win the Electoral College. And yes, I know 159 million votes (from 2020) is a ton, but that's still just 62% of the voting age population, and that includes a much easier vote-by-mail option. The only other times it has gone over 60% since 1932 were in the 60's. So there are a ton of possible voters who choose to stay home. Obviously a lot of factors come into that, whether it's about elections happening on working days, people not having access to get to the polls, etc etc, but for the most part, a massive slice of the population here is politically apathetic. So when you consider that the president can win the seat with only 36% of the vote of 60% of the population, that speaks to the civic motivation of a lot of Americans. Democrats had the benefit of the lockdowns and just anger towards Trump in 2020 to carry the campaign (the Biden is in the basement thing), but they're going to have to hit the road hard this time around because they've not delivered on a lot of promises. Trump is both their biggest threat AND biggest asset in the campaign, but I think they're going to have to be much more visible to motivate voters.
Is the postal vote and whatever other version of it (early votes or what have you) still a think in most states or have the states with republican leanings changed the law to outright eliminate it? I think i said a few weeks back that you have 6 states that might flip, maybe 7. Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. The last state i saw flip before Georgia was Virginia for obama so its not exaclty a thing. Trump doesn't even need to campaign in California or NY and can largely assume florida and texas are his. Its the 5% or so of votes in those 6 state that will change or the peopel who don't bother to vote that will decide this? .
Which, if he theoretically loses that 30%, it's about 30K votes. So that's enough to be a significant factor in the state. I think some states have tried to limit absentee voting (early, main-in, etc) to varying degrees of success. And yeah, whatever the battleground states were in 2020 are the same this time around, and will basically decide the election. The democrats have historically been helped by larger voter turnout. That's why Republicans do everything they can to make it difficult for people in the guise of "the illegal immigrants are voting for Biden to raise your taxes."
I've said it many times and I'll say it again. How has it come to this where two senile old codgers who will soon be needing care, if they aren't secretly recieving it already, are the two candidates for the most important job in the Western world? What an absolute joke.
At this point its the american electorate and the parties problem. The republican party had every opportunity to put up a lunatic of a young age at any time in the past two years and do for trump simply by getting out of the way of the various court cases or impeachments etc. If trump was out of the picture then IMO the democrats would be forced to pick someone else as he'd have been smashed by any fit young candidate. Biden is put up as trump was put up. I n4 years time even bigger nut jobs will be put forth by both parties.
Trumpy ban overturned by the supreme court, so he's allowed to stand nationwide despite what him and his supporters did. Colour me shocked. Anyway, I've now got zero doubt there is another four years of that lying c**t coming up. The democrats shot themselves in the foot by nominating a bloke who looks and acts like he's dug up every morning. The fact he's still the better option of the two speaks volumes.
The Tories have no chance of winning the GE this year with that big eared, short arsed, vile cnut at the helm. And they haven't got time to change him and make a difference.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Trump gerrymandered Supreme Court also decide he's immune from all prosecution because he was a President. As I've said before I can't believe Biden and the Dems didn't appoint another shedload of judges to the SC, given the brazen way the current 6 - 3 GOP majority is prepared to tread roughshod over common sense and overwhelming public opinion. The fact that one of the SC judges currently deciding if Trump can be guilty of sedition on Jan 6th is married to one of the architects of the sedition on January 6th frankly beggars belief.
Apathy impacts votes across the board. Many Tory voters will stay home, or vote Reform or Lib Dem. Many Labour voters will stay home or vote, Green or Independent.
